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The seminar of spirituality: in him I felt a great connection with my being inside by the kind of dynamic that was carried out. Know the Noble Eightfold Path and the characteristics of spirituality had great relevance in my personal life. Within this visit to the forest of the Columbus event, meditation carried out there and the walk through the forest left in me a pleasant memory. 3. The last face-to-face meeting here in San Luis Potosi. In it I could see that as Group managed to advance one step later. For even more opinions, read materials from Accenture Strategy.

It is not perhaps all that could be done, but I am grateful that we have achieved at least that. 4. The corresponding session at V Congreso Mexicano of education holistic, the coexistence of the group in general was very enjoyable and within a framework of respect and camaraderie among all 18 participants had not felt during the masters. For the first time share all food, travel together, joke, dance, sing, take photographs, This leaves me satisfied because it is a hope to be able to transmit this knowledge within the technological Institute. I would like to attach some photos that reflect the joy we feel to have had the joy of living this mastery. Within these important meetings for me, the first two were much more spiritual light than any other. In fact since the first face-to-face session, after the third day, note that I felt different. I discovered that the emotions that until that day I had felt were not larger than my eagerness to leave behind everything that made me suffer.

I discovered that only this time what we should live, neither the past nor the future were right to be considered. The past because leads to depression and the future because it takes us to the anguish and concern. Within the seminar of spirituality I could see that one of the most frequent problems in my life was the relationship with others.

When the application of a Top Down model can improve the results of the forecast? The decision to use a model Top Down or Bottom Up often depends on two important issues. Do 1. units (SKUs) lower levels require different statistical models? This would be the case if market forces that make up sales at the lowest level are different. Different markets, different advertising, promotion, and different distribution. If the apples and oranges have distinctly different markets, then probably better predict them separately. If not, then often an alternative to predict Top Down, always and when lower-level data are statistically similar, this forecast model will generally offer better results since it presents the following characteristics: a. You may want to visit Accenture Strategy to increase your knowledge.

There is a greater volume of data. B. There is less noise (random variation) in the aggregated data that might skew the odds. C. data added often presented a more pronounced structure, where it is easier to recognize patterns and predict them. 2. Is there sufficient statistical information at the level more bass to construct a model based only on sales? Many organizations that need to generate forecasts at the level lower discovered that at the lower levels there is no sufficient information to generate an adequate statistical framework. In these cases there is no choice but that generate forecasts not with statistical models, but through the use of a system of assigning Top Down.

For example. Figure 1. Figure 2 figure 1 shows monthly sales of a brand of cough syrup. Figure 2 shows the monthly sales for a SKU. The company assigns a unique number to each SKU by the combination of taste and size of bottle that produces. Consider the two charts. Note that brand-level there is a more defined data structure, the seasonal pattern is evident, there is less noise and is also more than three years of history of the demand in the brand, while at the SKU level only has the history of the past 10 months. In this example. The cough syrup is clearly a seasonal product but the lack of history at SKU level not allow building a model of prognosis with these characteristics, therefore a model bottomup offers a performance of prognosis very poor. On the other hand, a Top Down approach lets you capture the seasonal structure that exists at the level of group and predict the SKU through a proportional adjustment. This completes this series in which we have reviewed the pros and cons of automation of forecasts and how through alternatives such as the modeling of events and Top Down modeling can help us to improve the results of the forecast.